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Temperature, Uncertainty, Time Period Questions

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p.copenhaver@...
Temperature, Uncertainty, Time Period Questions

Hello all, 

I recently started working with the CESM LENS data, and I have a few questions. I was unable to locate a users guide, so if the answer to any of these questions is written in some guide, I would appreciate if someone could point me toward that source!

My questions are:

1. Is the surface temperature (variable TS) measured at the surface (soil) or is it at 2 meters above the surface?

2. How are the initial conditions for each ensemble member chosen? Is there some randomization/Monte Carlo exercise applied for the initial conditions, i.e. what is the distribution function of initial conditions?

3. How are the time periods in the model split up? I am looking to take means of temperature and precipitation over 30 year time periods, and I am wondering what the best way to split up the ranges would be, especially considering the CESM changes exogenous forcing in 2005.

4. How does the model predict uncertainty?

Any advice and guidance is appreicated. Thank you!

~Paige 

strandwg

Answers to your query:

1) TS is calculated from the radiative fluxes at the surface and is treated as "skin" temperature. The 2m meter temperature is called "TREFHT" (temperature at the reference height of 2m).

 

2) Please see the LENS project page at

http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/projects/community-projects/LENS

Basically, each model member has a small initial perturbation from the same initial condition.


3) The data are available as full timeseries for each field for each temporal period 1920-2005, 2006-2080 and 2081-2100. The CMIP5 RCP8.5 forcings were used from 2006 onwards.

4) That's a bit of a vague question. Can you be more specific?


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